BBC Preview: Nats more than capable at home

For even more statistics and advice to help you set your Baseball Challenge lineup, check out Tristan's Week 20 Fantasy Forecaster!

It all boils down to Monday.

If we're going to see a record-setting contract signed by an amateur player this season, we will have to see it signed by the Monday deadline, and the Nationals and No. 1 pick Steven Strasburg have come down to the wire with their negotiations. The right-hander has been one of the most talked-about prospects in all of baseball already this season, despite the fact that he has yet to throw a pitch as a professional.

It's a captivating story to track for baseball fans and keeper-league owners. But for us Baseball Challenge faithful, we couldn't care less. In fact, I've just wasted five sentences on a pitcher who in all likelihood won't make a lick of difference in our game this season, and might not matter all that much next year either. (Seriously, who really expects great things from the Nationals' staff in 2010?)

And therein lies the point.

All the storylines in Washington this summer -- baseball storylines, like we care about health-care reform during a pennant race -- have focused on the Nationals' pathetic performance, their pursuit of the game's all-time worst single-season record and, of course, the Strasburg contract drama.

What has been overlooked is that in the past three-plus weeks, the Nats have actually been a somewhat decent team. Pitching remains a problem in the nation's capital, but offense hasn't. Fact: Did you know the Nationals have won eight consecutive home games, and totaled 60 runs, 90 hits and 13 home runs in those contests? What, has Nationals Park suddenly turned into new Yankee Stadium?

The Nationals attempt to extend that streak with a full slate of home games this week, facing a playoff-hopeful Rockies staff (somewhat challenging matchups) and an ice-cold Brewers staff (hardly challenging at all). With that in mind, and accounting for their torrid numbers at Nationals Park of late, this would be a perfect time to take a shot on a Nationals hitter or two. For one thing, they're sure priced right: Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman are the only ones who cost more than 5.0!

But I'll let the statistics speak for themselves. Here's where the five best Nationals hitters since the All-Star break rank among all of baseball in terms of BBC points:

3B Ryan Zimmerman, third (135)
1B (or left field in BBC) Adam Dunn, 12th (113)
CF Nyjer Morgan, tied for 30th (100)
LF (or right field in BBC) Josh Willingham, tied for 30th (100)
SS Cristian Guzman, tied for 54th (89)

Tristan's top weekly pitching staffs

1. San Francisco Giants (@NYM-1, @CIN-3, @COL-3 -- two-start pitchers Joe Martinez and Tim Lincecum), 6.9 price tag: Having Lincecum as a two-start pitcher is a huge advantage in the weekly BBC game, and the driving force behind this pick. If individual pitchers generated points, the right-hander would lead the majors by a substantial margin with 480; no one else is even within 70 points of that. As you evaluate the Giants' staff, let the pick come down to how you feel about that weekend series at Coors Field. It's a key showdown between National League West and wild-card foes, and if you're a believer that the Rockies will take the series, by all means pick them and their decent matchups instead. I just happen to favor the Giants, and I don't fear the Coors matchups one bit.

2. Atlanta Braves (ARI-1, @NYM-3, FLA-3 -- two-start pitchers Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe), 6.9: If there is a weakness in this staff right now, it's at closer, where Rafael Soriano has two blown saves in seven chances and a 6.75 ERA since the All-Star break, and not in the rotation. The Braves' current five starters have a 3.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP during that same time span, with top two arms Derek Lowe and Javier Vazquez undefeated, the mark of a red-hot pitching staff. The Marlins series is the challenge for the Braves this week, but they're home games, and that's a good matchup for strikeouts. I'd take the chance on it.

3. New York Yankees (@OAK-3, @BOS-3 -- two-start pitchers A.J. Burnett and CC Sabathia), 6.3: Though I raised an eyebrow over the Yankees' recent strategy to start both Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre on back-to-back days in Seattle, one of the benefits of that move is that it ensures neither right-hander has to pitch this week. The Yankees are off Thursday, so they'll slot Joba Chamberlain back into the rotation Wednesday and frankly, it'd be a foolish plan for them not to use both Burnett and Sabathia on regular rest at Boston during the weekend. In other words, New York will be using its four best starters, and the three who will face the Red Sox just held them to eight hits and no runs in 22 1/3 innings combined in their Aug. 6-9 series at Yankee Stadium. No reason to fear the matchups.

Tristan's daily matchup tips

Monday, Aug. 17: When picking Yankees pitching matchups, I prefer road games against middling-or-worse offenses, and this one, A.J. Burnett at Oakland, qualifies. It helps that he's 6-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in his past 11 starts. … The White Sox generally hit the Royals' Brian Bannister well, particularly Carlos Quentin. He's 3-for-5 with two home runs in his career versus the right-hander.

Tuesday, Aug. 18: Duh. The Giants and Tim Lincecum at Cincinnati is a no-brainer matchup, especially if you read about his stats above. I sincerely doubt I'll pick anyone else Tuesday, but the Red Sox behind Josh Beckett's 10-2 record, 1.89 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his past 15 starts is tempting if 1.0 in price savings is important to you. … For some reason, the Astros seem to have Ricky Nolasco's number. Hunter Pence in particular has three home runs and five RBIs in seven career at-bats versus the Marlins right-hander.

Wednesday, Aug. 19: Justin Verlander has a favorable history against Seattle, 6-2 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in eight career starts, so the Tigers warrant a look Wednesday. That it's a home game is quite an advantage, as 10 of his 13 wins this season have come at Comerica Park. … The Red Sox tattooed the Blue Jays' Ricky Romero in both of their previous meetings this season, with fresh-off-his-suspension Kevin Youkilis the most successful of the bunch versus the left-hander. He's 2-for-4 with two homers and two walks against Romero.

Thursday, Aug. 20: Though the Reds touched up Matt Cain in San Francisco in his most recent start, I'd count on a bounce-back effort in the rematch, even though this one will be played in Cincinnati. The Reds' offense has been miserable since the All-Star break, and even with that recent bad outing, Cain is 9-3 with a 2.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in his past 16 starts. … Minnesota's Anthony Swarzak struggles versus left-handed hitters (.302 BA, .860 OPS), and the Rangers have plenty of 'em: Hank Blalock, Josh Hamilton, David Murphy …

Friday, Aug. 21: The Marlins strike out a ton, and the Braves' Javier Vazquez is a strikeout artist. Put two and two together and what do you get? How about 20 K's in 13 1/3 innings in Vazquez's first two starts versus Florida this year? Sure, he has a 4.05 ERA in those games, but I'm skeptical the Marlins will cause much trouble in a home start for Vazquez. … For those willing to dig deep, take a look at Royals hitters versus Minnesota's Nick Blackburn. Kansas City hammered the right-hander in Minnesota, and Blackburn hasn't won on the road since May. Miguel Olivo is 6-for-11 with two homers in his career against the righty.

Saturday, Aug. 22: Back-to-back Braves, I'd think, as Tommy Hanson has 30 K's in 32 2/3 innings in five starts since the All-Star break, and the Marlins, well, you get the idea. There's a reason I picked the Braves as a solid weekly pick. Matchups like this are why. … The Giants have enough right-handers to give Jorge De La Rosa fits at Coors Field. Freddy Sanchez in particular is 6-for-11 (.545 BA) with one double and a home run in his career versus the lefty.

Sunday, Aug. 23: Chris Carpenter is pitching about as well as he has at any point in his career -- and this is a former Cy Young winner, remember -- so the Cardinals will be tough to beat at San Diego. Since July 1, Carpenter is 7-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in eight starts. … The White Sox pounded Baltimore's Jason Berken in their previous meeting this season, and now they have Alex Rios, who is 3-for-5 with two doubles and one homer in his career against the righty.

Tristan's BBC weekly-game lineup

Total Segment 2 points: 1,301.
Percentage: 95.6. Overall rank: 1,132nd.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 103rd. Total points for 2009 season: 5,266.
Percentage: 98.4. Overall rank: 946th.

C: Joe Mauer, Twins (@TEX-4, @KC-3), locked at 4.9 price tag, market price 5.2: He's back to his old tricks, batting .395 (34-for-86) with six home runs, 21 RBIs and a 1.133 OPS in his past 21 games.
1B: Albert Pujols, Cardinals (@LAD-3, @SD-4), locked at 5.1, market 5.2: OK, so I'm sticking with him one more week. Hey, he's cheap, and he's hitting .469 with four homers, 10 RBIs and a 1.541 OPS in his past eight games.
2B: Chase Utley, Phillies (ARI-3, @NYM-3), 4.8: He already has three home runs in five career games at Citi Field. So much for it being cavernous.
3B: Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals (COL-3, MIL-3), 5.5: The hottest National of them all, and it wouldn't be right if I didn't put my money where my mouth is.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (@HOU-3, @ATL-3), 4.9: You might have noticed his .457 batting average and 12 RBIs in his past nine games. But were you aware that he also has six stolen bases during that span?
LF: Matt Holliday, Cardinals (@LAD-3, @SD-4), locked at 4.4, market 5.3: What a pickup for St. Louis. In 18 games since his trade from Oakland, Holliday is hitting .486 (34-for-70) with four homers, 17 RBIs and a 1.319 OPS.
CF: Josh Hamilton, Rangers (MIN-4, @TB-3), 3.9: Is the real Hamilton back? He's a .486 hitter with eight RBIs in his past 10 games.
RF: Andre Ethier, Dodgers (STL-3, CHC-4), locked at 4.8, market 5.4: Since being moved ahead of Manny Ramirez in the order (for good) on July 31, he's batting .339 with three homers, 14 RBIs and a 1.047 OPS in 13 games.
DH: Jim Thome, White Sox (KC-3, BAL-3), 4.3: It's a full week of home games, all versus right-handed starters, and his OPS in home games this season is .893, his OPS versus righties .895.
Pitching staff: Braves (ARI-1, @NYM-3, FLA-3), 6.9

Tristan's BBC daily-game stats

Total Segment 2 points: 1,628.
Percentage: 99.2. Overall rank: 501st.

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.